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Reliability : an unpredictable reason in thinking.

 

<A ‘drop cap’ is the beginning consonant, or vocal of the first word in a written text and in the ancient medieval manuscripts the ‘drop cap’ was larger than the other letter, and opulently decorated>

 

 

 

I was reading a specialistic journal article (1) and happened thinking, with some pleasure, that ‘behaviourism’, leading the traditional but obsolete ‘Game theories’ is at last beginning to care of Political Economics decisions in one, of a group of Countries, as they are able to guide the public opinion and then the individual investment, saving and consumption decisions too.

 

Frailty in ‘behaviourism’, which - by means of the ‘Game theories’ - is un-ascribing any single man or woman and the whole society as far as economical decisions, from individual to aggregate, are concerned, is now evident in the present difficulty to forecast the behaviour of individuals who are more and more trained and competent.

 

The article I’m just reading points then a criticity in Central Banks of a Country, or group of Countries in orienting those behaviours which, even if collective, move from individual choices indeed on the base of available information : it seems convenient to emphasize here that, notwithstanding also the Central Bank of a Country, or Nation, is an Institute and then a body in favour of which different competences do work and cooperate in a specific required scope, it is the President of the Central Bank to be charged with a single political orientation – ‘monetary’ here – toward the whole national, and also supranational community. 

 

The authors, whom results in terms of mathematical formulations have been here named, consider a currency crisis in a Country, as mainly induced by the expectations of citizens - savers, consumers, investitors of a Country – able to read what the Central Bank, and its President, decides. 

 

A Nation then, where suddenly the stock of currency does shorten due to not enough profitable ‘domestic’ titles, can incur in more harmful consequencies when decide, by means of their Central Bank to open to a devaluation of their own currency.

 

The same outcome can obtain the decision to devaluate, when made by a Central Bank unable to afford economic and political costs connected to higher interest rates able, on another hand, to attract savers and investors.

 

In both these cases, what is crucial is the structure of national market not so simple indeed as able to ascribe specific and different values to the rate of interest, so that it is not easy to forecast the consequencies of a ‘technical’ devaluation. 

 

An individual competence about the fundamentals (2) of a Country can then vanify simplicistic and consequently abstract, because they don’t supply with reasons – both of concomitance and competition  of national and supranational conditions able to anticipate a currency crisis.   

 

Under conditions of competition, a minimum signal like a variation of national rate of interest can already contribute to increase conveniently the competence itself and maybe also a social and political sharing.

 

As a matter of facts, any individual thinking logically moves by reliability, thanks to which anyone can ascribe peacefully his own, or her own, satisfaction or, on the opposite, un-satisfaction. Nothing to do with any ingenuous and hazardous ‘behaviourism’ which dictates : ‘reaction action’.

 

Buti t is the freudian logic : a whole other world. 

 

 

Marina Bilotta Membretti - Cernusco sul Naviglio March 13, 2019

 

 

1'Self-fulfilling currency crises : the role of interest rates', di Christian Hellwig/Università Los Angeles-CA, Arijit Mukherji/Università del Minnesota, Aleh Tsyvinski/Università di Harvard, Cambridge-MA e 'National Bureau of Economic Research'. The article is the profit of the scientific debate in progress about the forecast of economic events in globalization, which for the first time saw participation of economists from Deutschland (Budapest, 'Society for Economic Dynamics', Annual meeting).

2 Fundamentals of a Nation are, for example : trade balance, aggregate public budget, investment growth rate.

 

 

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